Knight Frank Thailand, a leading real estate consultancy firm, led by Mr. Nattha Kahapana, Managing Director, has unveiled key research insights into Thailand’s real estate market outlook for 2025 at the Knight Frank Foresight 2025: Collaboration online seminar. The study highlights that the condominium and office sectors continue to face an oversupply, putting downward pressure on sales rates. Meanwhile, the rental market is experiencing growth, driven by an increase in expatriates and the recovery of the tourism sector. The hotel sector is benefiting from a strong recovery in tourism, and the industrial and logistics sectors are seeing continued expansion driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

Mr. Sunchai Kooakachai, Senior Director and Head of Research and Real Estate Advisory, reported that in Q4 2024, Bangkok’s condominium market saw 9,800 new units launched, an increase of over 360% compared to the previous quarter. However, new sales rose by only 9.9%, keeping the overall sales ratio at 35%, below the healthy market benchmark of 40%. Approximately 51% of the new supply was in outer Bangkok areas, while 45% was in suburban locations along mass transit routes. In contrast, new launches in the Central Business District (CBD) declined, with most projects categorized as Grade A. Current average selling prices in the CBD stand at THB 236,000 per sqm, compared to THB 127,000 in suburban areas and THB 72,000 in outer Bangkok.

In the Prime and Super Prime condominium segment, where unit prices exceed THB 200,000–250,000 per sqm, supply remained stable in 2024, with 6,500 Super Prime units and 7,200 Prime units. Both categories achieved sales rates above 80%, indicating strong market performance. However, the overall condominium market remains sluggish, and new project launches in 2025 are expected to decline due to high inventory levels and weakened purchasing power.

Mr. Sunchai also noted that an increase in expatriate residents in Bangkok, which grew by 7.1% in 2024, could help stimulate the rental market. The largest expatriate groups in the city are from China (28%), the Philippines (25%), and Japan (14%). This trend may attract investors back to the condominium rental market in key locations. Additionally, the recovering tourism industry is expected to drive demand for long-term rental accommodations in certain areas. However, overall condominium market performance will remain dependent on economic conditions and consumer purchasing power.

Mr. Frank Khan, Executive Director and Head of Residential, emphasized that Bangkok’s condominium market faces significant challenges in 2025, prompting major developers to scale back new launches. Only 2–4 new projects are expected to enter the market this year, with some developers shifting focus to Phuket or low-rise housing projects instead. Additionally, unsold condominium stock is being reintroduced to the market at discounted prices, making 2025 a “buyer’s market.”

The luxury and ultra-luxury segments remain resilient, attracting high-net-worth buyers. Units exceeding THB 320,000 per sqm and larger-than-average layouts are gaining popularity. Additionally, mixed-use developments are drawing interest due to their convenience and integration of residential, office, and retail spaces.

Meanwhile, low-rise housing remains a strong segment, particularly in the THB 10–40 million price range. However, increased competition has also turned this sector into a “buyer’s market”. Prime condominium locations that continue to attract demand include Ploenchit, Chidlom, Ratchadamri, Sathorn, and riverside areas, where luxury projects are consistently being launched.

Additionally, homebuyers are prioritizing quality of life, convenience, and workplace connectivity more than ever, influencing purchasing decisions.

Mr. Carlos Martinez, Director of Research & Advisory, reported that Thailand’s tourism industry rebounded strongly in 2024, with 35.5 million international visitors. This figure is expected to increase to 36–40 million in 2025. Chinese tourist numbers are recovering, they remain at 71% of pre-COVID levels, with 9 million visitors projected for this year.

Hotel occupancy in Bangkok averages 79%, with room rates up 7% year-on-year. Phuket has also returned to pre-pandemic levels with 5.3 million visitors, a figure expected to rise further in 2025.

Despite this positive momentum, the hospitality sector faces growing competition from alternative accommodations, such as Airbnb, serviced apartments, and budget hotels. Additionally, concerns over crime and travel advisories, particularly from Taiwan, could impact Asian tourist arrivals.

Mr. Marcus Burtenshaw, Executive Director and Head of Occupier Strategy & Solutions – Industrial, reported that Thailand’s industrial and logistics sector achieved record-high industrial land sales of 12,340 rai in 2024, with 64% of transactions occurring within the EEC.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector surged by 40%, reaching THB 746 billion, while new factory expansions increased by 59%, indicating investor confidence. Key high-growth industries include electronics and semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and data centers.

However, global trade dynamics pose challenges, particularly the U.S. retaliatory tariffs that may impact imports from value-added tax (VAT) countries like Thailand, affecting automotive, electronics, and food industries. Meanwhile, ASEAN trade and RCEP agreements are becoming increasingly significant, emphasizing the need for logistics infrastructure development.

Knight Frank forecasts a shift in trade routes, with Laem Chabang Port and the EEC Logistics Corridor emerging as key cross-border logistics hubs. Additionally, Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and Free Trade Zones (FTZs) are expected to play a crucial role in attracting investors seeking Thailand as a primary manufacturing base.

Mr. Panya Jenkitvathanalert, Executive Director, Head of Occupier Strategy & Solutions Office, reported that Bangkok’s office market remains oversupplied, with total office space reaching 6.31 million sqm in 2024, a 4% increase year-on-year. However, occupied space grew by only 2.2%, keeping the market in a “tenant’s market” phase.

New Grade A office buildings in CBD locations (Silom, Sathorn, Sukhumvit) command rental rates between THB 900–1,600 per sqm per month, while non-CBD locations (Rama 9, Bangna-Trad) remain below THB 1,000 per sqm. Although rents increased slightly by 3.3%, landlords continue offering 10–25% discounts to attract tenants.

Mr. Panya anticipates that the overall occupancy rate will continue to decline. Currently, the occupancy rate stands at 77%, marking a 1.3% decrease from the previous year, and it is expected to decline further until 2027, before the market gradually stabilizes. Key factors influencing the office market include the “Flight to Quality” trend, where organizations are relocating to higher-quality buildings, space optimization strategies, and a growing emphasis on green and sustainable buildings. The market recovery is expected after 2027, when the supply of new office space slows down, leading to a more balanced dynamic between landlords and tenants.

Mr. Nattha Kahapana, Managing Director of Knight Frank Thailand, concluded, “The 2025 real estate outlook reflects shifting economic conditions, consumer behavior, and purchasing power.” While the condominium sector faces oversupply challenges, demand for prime locations and larger units will be the key drivers. The office sector continues to struggle with excess supply, requiring landlords to enhance quality and sustainability standards to attract tenants. In contrast, the hotel and industrial sectors are poised for growth, driven by tourism recovery and foreign investment, particularly in the EEC.

“This dynamic environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors and developers who can adapt through innovation, market-driven projects, and sustainable management strategies,” he added.